Pennsylvania's gas wells produce best where the shale is deepest and thickest. But New York's shale is thin and shallow. Does this mean a future of wildcat drillers and low royalties combined with damage from frack waste, compressor stations, and pipelines (or as one analyst put it, "a hangover without the night on the town")? Below the event description, we discuss these questions and some of the reactions this controversial theory has triggered.

Listen live online at 10am to host Alison Rose Levy of Connect the Dots in conversation with event moderator, Professor Anthony Ingraffea of Cornell University.

New York Shale Gas Potential: How Does It Compare to Pennsylvania? A forum moderated by Professor Anthony Ingraffea, with presentations by geologist Brian Brock, systems analyst Jerry Acton, oil and gas experts Chip Northrup and Lou Allstadt.

Thursday, Jan. 16th at New York Society for Ethical Culture, 2 West 64th Street at Central Park West, 6:30–9 pm, Doors open 6:00 pm for music by The Gotham City Pickers. Come early to tap your foot, sign petitions and pick up your radon test kit! Suggested donation of $5-10 benefits the NY Society for Ethical Culture, a progressive institution that has long been a nurturing supporter of the antifracking movement.

Friday, Jan. 17th at Foothills Center, 24 Market Street, Oneonta, 7–9 pm, Doors open 6:00 pm for music by The Gravel Yard Band.

We don't mean to imitate any FOX news anchors, but we do find the kerfluffle surrounding New York Shale Gas Potential perplexing.

When we first heard that 4 upstate experts had analyzed Pennsylvania's geological and well production data––to compare it with New York's shale––we were intrigued. When we learned that Professor Anthony Ingraffea of Cornell University was involved, we were interested. When the opportunity to bring the presentation to New York City came up, we were eager to support it. The preview of the presentation that we saw seemed to confirm everything that Deborah Rogers and Art Berman have been saying for years––that production is wildly overstated by industry and the shale gas bubble is about to burst. In fact, the presentation seemed, to us, very much like a "fraconomics" forum, specific to New York State. This was data people ought to know about.

So we were caught pretty much off guard by some of the reactions to this forum.

It wouldn't have been surprising that gassers, JLCNY and drillionaire wannabes might have objections to the theory that New York's shale won't produce the kinds of gushers they've been fantasizing about, but it was surprising that some objections came from people on our side, even very close friends. Turned out the concept raised a bit of anxiety.

There have been understandable fears raised that news of poorly producing shale will cause New Yorkers to become complacent. That we'll all lose our motivation to push for a ban. There is a fear that this data will effectively sound the "ALL CLEAR" and everyone will forget about fracking.

We just don't think so. We have faith in New Yorker's reputation for smarts.

Not even close. For one thing, we've already seen the very immediate threats to New York State from infrastructure: There may be a de facto moratorium but that's done nothing to stop the onslaught of pipelines, compressor stations, storage cavern schemes, and LNG proposals.

For another, this data is not going to scare off wildcat drillers. It could actually attract the more marginal operators who are willing to take their chances, who might be willing to drill lots of wells in the hopes of hitting one producer. And the more wells drilled, the more likely we'd see aquifer contamination.

Even worse, it could make New York's geology attractive for injection wells, where all the same toxins of fracking would still be sent underground, but no gas is released. (Just a few resulting earthquakes.)

This new data won't do a thing to stop the push to make the Southern Tier a massive frack support station for Pennsylvania. The storage caverns at Seneca Lake; the expansion of Schlumberger; the water withdrawals at Painted Post; the drill cuttings being dumped in NYS landfills; the spreading of brine as road de-icer––none of these threats are any less imminent.

And unfortunately, 4 analysts saying that New York's shale stinks won't stop Williams from trying to build the Constitution, or Spectra from trying to build the AIM pipeline.

We've known for years that small towns could never afford repairs for the road damage that fracking causes. Now, if wells don't produce, tax revenues will go from "not enough" to ZERO. We've been hearing for ages from PA leaseholders how drillers are taking larger and larger deductions from royalties, how a few hit the jackpot but most are not seeing big paychecks. That scenario would be increased in New York State, where few wells are expected to produce.

Now more than ever. By exposing the lie that drilling creates wealth, by showing that there's nothing but negative effects––all pain and no gain––there remains ZERO excuses to allow the practice into New York. If New York's shale is worthless, that might, just MIGHT, make legislators finally sit up and take notice that the supposed economic boom of fracking is a nothing but a ton of hogwash. Armed with this new data, the movement should be reinvigorated to push HARDER not just for a ban but to CRIMINALIZE fracking and ALL RELATED INFRASTRUCTURE.

We look forward to seeing you on Thursday, to talk about these and lots of other questions we are sure this presentation will raise. The Q&A session is sure to be lively. Please arrive early to hear some great bluegrass music from Gotham City Pickers, sign petitions and meet all our friends who'll be tabling.