Refining our formula for forecasts We're always looking at ways in which we can make subtle improvements to Moneyscope. And, lately, we've been comp

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Refining our formula for forecasts

We're always looking at ways in which we can make subtle improvements to Moneyscope.

And, lately, we've been comparing different ways to forecast the long-term effects of investment returns and inflation on capital.

As a result, we would like to make a change to the way Moneyscope calculates its forecasts and so we wanted to let you know our plan.

Why change?

The outcome of a forecast depends on whether you:

account for the effect of investment returns and then inflation; or
account for the effect of inflation and investment returns at the same time.

In other words, there's more than one way to calculate the effect of both factors in a forecast and we've compared a few alternatives. Since the maths is right, it's a matter of opinion which route you choose.

Moneyscope currently accounts for the effect of inflation and investment returns at the same time but we're inclined to the idea of calculating the effect of investment returns and then inflation on a client's capital.

Comparing the alternatives

Moneyscope Formula

To help us decide, we ran a test scenario to compare two methods of calculating 50-year forecasts (the results of which are displayed in the graph above).

At the moment, Moneyscope's forecast generates the forecast indicated by the green line in the graph.

But if we subtly alter the way in which Moneyscope accounts for inflation, the resulting forecast is shown by the orange line.

As you can see from the results, each method gradually diverges over the duration of the forecast to between +/- 5-6% of one another by 50+ years.

What happens next?

From our point of view, it's the shape of the cashflow over time that really matters so either method works fine.

All the same, we can't help thinking that applying the effect of investment returns throughout the year and accounting for the effect of inflation - in one go - at the end of the year, is an improvement.

So we plan to update Moneyscope on Thursday 7 June 2012 to reflect this change in calculation.

If you disagree with the change, please let us know by e-mailing us at support@moneyscopehq.com.

In the meantime, thank you for using Moneyscope!

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